USDA forecasting decrease revenue for 2025
The USDA Economic Research Service forecasts a $1.8 billion drop in farm sector income for 2025, marking the third straight year of declines since the 2022 peak. Crop receipts are expected to fall by $5.6 billion (-2.3%) from 2024, while animal income is projected to rise slightly by $3.8 billion (+1.4%) (USDA Economic Research Service, n.d.).
A bright spot is the projected increase in direct government payments, including supplemental, conservation, and ARC/PLC programs. These payments are expected to reach $42.4 billion in 2025, a $33.1 billion jump from the $9.3 billion forecast for 2024 (USDA Economic Research Service, n.d.). Additionally, production expenses are expected to decrease slightly by 2.0%.
Weather remains a critical variable. The National Weather Service predicts higher temperatures and reduced precipitation for the 2025 growing season, potentially exacerbating drought conditions. This could disrupt grain and cattle markets, lower yields, and strain local resources like grass and pond water for cattle. Current soil conditions are average, underscoring the need for consistent rainfall to support crops.
Farmers and ranchers are likely to face ongoing agronomic challenges and significant financial risks in 2025. Prepare for a tough year ahead!