Bushels and Beyond: The Year Corn Broke the Charts
Corn production for grain is forecast at 16.7 billion bushels, up 13 percent from 2024, which if realized would be the highest production for grain on record for the United States. Based on conditions as of August 1, the yield is forecast at a record high of 188.8 bushels per acre, up 9.5 bushels from last year’s 179.3 bushels. Total planted area, at 97.3 million acres, is up 2 percent from the previous estimate and up 7 percent from the previous year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 88.7 million acres, up 2 percent from the previous forecast and up 7 percent from the previous year, (USDA Crop Production – Released August 12, 2025)
As a result, corn and sorghum took a nosedive in the early part of the week, only to rebound by Friday. Yes…you read that correctly. The USDA announces the largest corn crop in the history of the United States, plus an acreage increase of 2 million acres, and the prices plunge and then miraculously rebound in 3-4 days? Obviously, the markets anticipated a bin buster. The subsequent rebound suggests that prices may have reached or are near their summer lows.
So where does that leave farmers? Obviously, lower prices mean negative net returns, and unfortunately implementing cost-saving measures to improve net returns is out of the question at this stage. Farmers should plan for a continued environment of low corn/sorghum prices in the near term and remain vigilant to shifting factors that could change the trajectory in this ever-cyclical agricultural market. Some would say that structured and proactive marketing plans work. Of course, that would depend on seasonal timing and a bit of luck. Probably the biggest factor is exports trends for the next three months. As they say, stay tune...