USDA January 2026 Report send shockwaves through grain markets
The January 2026 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report delivered a series of major shocks that sent the corn/sorghum markets sharply lower, driven largely by unexpected increases in acreage, yield, and overall production.
USDA raised harvested corn area by 1.3 million acres compared to December, a change that significantly expanded supply projections and exceeded market expectations. If that wasn’t enough of a problem, a yield revision boosted total U.S. corn production by an additional 269 million bushels, contributing to a record‑setting 17‑billion‑bushel corn crop. These larger production figures pushed U.S. ending stocks to 2.23 billion bushels, up from 2.03 billion the previous month and marking the highest level in seven years.
As you can image, grain markets reacted instantly to the heavy supply news, with nearby corn/sorghum futures dropping 23 cents within an hour of the WASDE release, and another USDA release day saw corn/sorghum fall 16 cents. Combined, these USDA reports delivered a uniformly bearish message: more acres, higher yields, record production, and swelling stockpiles both domestically and globally, all of which sharply reset price expectations for the 2026 marketing year.
So…where does that leave Kansas farmers/ranchers? Essentially it moves a bad economic situation into a worse one. Kansas growers will face negative margins, tough marketing decisions, and limited planting options as we shift into spring. Furthermore, it compounds the problem agriculture has been in a two‑year decline from the 2022 record, with net farm income falling sharply in 2023 and remaining depressed in 2024. Net farm income in 2025 is projected to be up, but those gain can be attributed to government payments, while cash receipts for 2025 crops is forecasted to be down (Farm Sector Income and Finances).